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Six of 59 countries holding elections in 2012 are members of the G20. In terms of the global economy, the most important political changes will take place in the U.S., France, Russia and China, according to a new report by Citigroup.
These four countries account for 40 percent of global GDP and hold four of five permanent seats in the United Nations Security Council.
March 4 - Russia presidential elections
After the protests surrounding the December 2011 Russian parliamentary elections, the March 4 2012 presidential election will be closely watched for signs of rigging. Putin is however expected to win.
What's at stake: If the results of the election are challenged Putin's return to power is expected to encounter resistance that hasn't been seen since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. For now markets are waiting to see if Putin implements reforms or if there will be a return to more centralized power.
According to Citi analyst Kingsmill Bond:
"...This is the first time since the year 2000 that the Russian market has had to factor in domestic political risk; the market's immediate response to the urban protests has been to widen the Russian discount by 200 points, slightly more than 10%. We believe that this uncertainty could continue beyond the elections, as market participants wait to see what kind of regime Putin will lead in his 3rd term as president."
Source: Citi
March 29 - Iran parliamentary elections
Upcoming Iranaian elections have been showing the power struggle between those who support President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and those who support the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
What's at stake? This will be the first election since the disputed 2009 presidential poll. The parliamentary election is also expected to test the legitimacy of the Islamic regime and could set the stage for the 2013 presidential election.
Source: Financial Times
April, Greece parliamentary elections
Greece faces elections in April to replace its technocratic government. Its co-ruling conservative party New Democracy wants snap elections as soon it gets its new bailout and no later than April 8. For now, Antonis Samaras' New Democracy is leading opinion polls.
What's at stake? With Greece continuing to be Europe's weakest link, everyone will be watching the elections to see if it can cobble together a government that will pull it out of the debt crisis and ease pressure on Europe.
Source: Reuters
See the rest of the story at Business Insider
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